Our Team

Desislava Petrova’s area of research is climate dynamics, variability and change. She holds a PhD degree in Climate Dynamics and an undergraduate degree in Mathematics.

Her main area of expertise is in climate predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal, inter-annual and decadal timescales, and particularly in the predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). She is also interested in how climate forecasts can be used within various impact models to increase their predictive lead time, and to develop useful climate services in help of vulnerable communities and decision-makers.

In the ArcIce4MedRain project she is currently focused on climate variability and change, and in particular on unraveling the dynamical sources of uncertainty of future rainfall projections in Mediterranean types of climates (in particular in California and the Mediterranean region itself).
 
Previously, in the Blue Action project she was responsible for the provision and analysis of the skill of weather forecasts that are to be used in epidemiological models of temperature-related mortality.

Lines of research

• El Niño Southern Oscillation variability, predictability and change.
• Climate dynamics, predictability and change.
• Climate impact models and climate services.

Main publications

• Desislava Petrova, Xavier Rodó, Rachel Sippy, Joan Ballester, Raul Mejía, Efraín Beltrán-Ayala, Mercy J. Borbor-Cordova, G. Mauricio Vallejo, Alfredo J. Olmedo, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Rachel Lowe, "The 2018-2019 weak El Niño: predicting the risk of a dengue outbreak in Machala, Ecuador" International Journal of Climatology (2021)
• Desislava Petrova, Joan Ballester, Siem Jan Koopman, Xavier Rodó, "Multi-year statistical prediction of ENSO enhanced by the tropical Pacific observing system" Journal of Climate (2020) 
• Desislava Petrova, Rachel Lowe, Anna Stewart-Ibarra, Joan Ballester, Siem Jan Koopman, Xavier Rodó, "Sensitivity of large dengue epidemics in Ecuador to long-lead predictions of El Niño" Climate Services (Special issue: The Fifth International Conference on Climate Services, ICCS5 - Learning from Success and Failure) (2019)
• Desislava Pterova, Siem Jan Koopman, Joan Ballester, Xavier Rodó, "Improving the long-lead predictability of El Niño using a novel forecasting scheme based on a dynamic components model" Climate Dynamics (2017), doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3139-
• Rachel Lowe, Anna Stewart-Ibarra, Desislava Petrova, Markel García-Díez, Mercy Borbor-Cordova, Raul Mejía, Mary Regato, Xavier Rodó, "Climate services for health: predicting the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in Machala, Ecuador" Lancet Planetary Health (2017), doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30064-5.